Abstract
RESULTS OF POVERTY USING A WELFARE MEASURE
- Basic needs poverty and extreme poverty have declined since 2009/10.
Basic needs poverty declined from 34.9 percent to 25.7 percent between 2009/10 and 2019/20, and food poverty (extreme poverty) declined from 11.7 percent to 9.3 percent within the same period. These figures come from the HBS consumption-based headcount index, which measures the proportion of the Zanzibar’s population with a consumption level below the poverty line that could not meet their basic consumption needs. About 9.3 percent of the population is extremely poor and cannot afford to buy basic foodstuffs to meet their minimum nutritional requirements of 2,200 kilocalories (Kcal) per day. These poverty figures are estimated using respectively, the national basic needs poverty line of TZS 66,313 per adult per month and the national food poverty line of TZS 47,541 per adult per month.
- The depth of poverty also declined.
Depth captures the gap between households’ consumption level and the poverty line where the non-poor households’ depth is zero. It declined by 2.4 percentage points between 2009/10 and 2019/20. Within the same period, both the rural and the urban basic needs poverty gap declined by over 2 percentage points. Additionally, there was a decline in the share of the population living in poverty in Zanzibar over the last decade, relative to the growth in the total population. This suggests that households were able to reduce their consumption shortfall by a notable margin relative to the poverty line. The observed consumption gap of the poor implies that the decline in the poverty index is explained by an increase in the number of non-poor people.
- Majority of the poor and non-poor are still clustered around the poverty line. Around 417,256 .
Zanzibaris are still below the basic needs poverty line. While the basic needs poverty headcount declined by 9.2 percentage points over the past decade, the absolute number of poor people only declined by about 27,000 people due to population growth. The proportion of people along the food poverty line saw some notable reduction within the last five years (from 157,133 in 2014/15 to 150,840 in 2019/20) but remained virtually the same over the last ten years. The food poverty headcount rate fell by 2.4 percentage points from 11.7 percent in 2009/10 to 9.3 percent in 2019/20.
- A large share of the population hovers around the poverty line, likely to escape poverty but also prone to fall into it.
Small changes in the national poverty line yield significant differences in estimated poverty levels, indicating a high concentration of individuals around the basic needs threshold. For example, an increase of the basic needs poverty line by 20 percent (TZS 13,263 per adult per month) leads to a change of poverty rate by 53.0 percent (the headcount rate increased from 25.7 percent to 39.3 percent). The significant number of people clustering around the poverty line suggests that an important proportion of moderately poor people are positioned to move out of
poverty, but also that an important proportion of non-poor people are vulnerable to falling into poverty.
- Poor households are larger in size and have more dependents than non-poor households.
The interaction between family size and poverty is bidirectional. A high number of children and dependents affect the ability of the poor to cover their basic food needs and to move out of poverty. On the other hand, poor households tend to have more children to compensate for their inability to rise from poverty by investing in the human capital of their children and having many as an insurance strategy against infant mortality, trapping them in a vicious cycle of poverty.
- Almost three-quarter (73.3 percent) of the basic needs poor and 76.5 percent of the food poor in Zanzibar live in rural areas.
Poverty is particularly pervasive in rural areas, where the majority (55.8 percent) of the Zanzibar population resides. About 305,648 people in rural areas live in basic needs poverty and 114,439 live in food poverty, compared to 111,608 living in basic needs poverty and 35,401 in food poverty in urban areas.
- Poverty is negatively correlated with higher levels of education of the head of household.
Higher education levels of the household head, particularly secondary and upper education, seem to be associated with better income-generating opportunities and significantly tend to lower poverty levels. Education positively affects the living standards and poverty reduction, either directly or indirectly through its impact on health gains, productivity, social integration and so forth.
- Running a non-farm business is associated with lower poverty.
The 2014/15 and 2019/20 HBS asked detailed questions about non-agricultural businesses the households were running. Households with a non-agricultural business have lower levels of poverty, suggesting that the development of non-farm employment can offer a pathway out of poverty. However, the results show that being employed is not a guarantee of not being poor. From the 2019/20 HBS, households with four or more employed members have a high basic needs poverty headcount rate (36.5 percent) compared to households with fewer members employed. Large family sizes and low wages of those in employment could explain this observation. The working poor is earning low wages which are not high enough to lift them above the poverty line. Increasing welfare state provision, increasing minimum wages and absorbing educational and health care costs are methods to potentially reduce the proportion of the working poor.
- Working in agriculture does not impact the incidence of being poor or non-poor.
From the 2019/20 HBS, the headcount poverty rate was higher among households that engaged in agricultural activities (30.7 percent) compared to households that did not (22.8 percent). For urban households that did not engage in agricultural activities, the poverty headcount rate was higher (16.5 percent) and for rural households that did not engage in agricultural activities, the poverty rate was lower (31.2 percent). Moreover, the majority (56.3 percent) of the poor population were not using agricultural land.
- Consumption inequality remains stable and moderate.
The Gini Coefficient measures income inequality or consumption expenditures across a nation’s population based on consumption per capita. For the past decade, Zanzibar experienced a marginal increase in consumption inequality by 1.0 percentage point from 30.0 percent in 2009/10 to 31.0 percent in 2019/20. Zanzibar’s inequality level is moderate and compares favourably with sub-Saharan Africa (an average of 45.1).
- The picture of overall food security is mixed.
The proportion of households that consume three or more meals in a day has increased by 10 percentage points over the past decade, leading to about nine out of ten households falling within an acceptable food security score from the 2019/20 HBS.The average food security scores for Kaskazini A and Kaskazini B seem to be similar to the other districts in Pemba, except Micheweni which had the lowest food security score among all the districts of Zanzibar.
RESULTS OF POVERTY USING NON-WELFARE MEASURES
- Considerable improvements have been made regarding the standard of housing.
Majority of houses were built by using modern materials, especially in the urban areas. The proportion of households connected to electricity has increased to 57.6 percent in 2019/20 from 25.2 percent in 2004/05. Access to an improved water source stood at 93.1 percent which is a considerable increase compared to previous surveys. The proportion of households using flush toilets increased to 51.8 percent in 2019/20 from 19.6 percent in 2009/10 while the proportion of households with no toilet decreased to 11.5 percent from 20.3 percent within the same timeframe. However, there is still a big rural/urban and Unguja/Pemba disparity in these indicators.
- The situation in the education sector is a positive one.
Adult literacy rates continue to increase steadily over the last decade. The attendance of 6 to 13 years old children at school has risen by ten percentage points in the last 10 years. In 2019/20, basic and primary net and gross enrolment rates have largely increased compared to the previous surveys, except the net enrolment rate for primary education which remains virtually the same over the past decade.
Overall, in the health sector, there have been notable improvements, most remarkably in the reduction of the incidence of malaria across all ages. The percentage of households living less
than two kilometres from a health centre has steadily increased over the last decade. The percentage of people who paid for consultation or advice has increased greatly from 14.4 percent in 2009/10 to 19.1 percent in 2019/20. Encouragingly, 8.6 percent of respondents in 2014/15 did not seek medical help as it was too expensive but that declined massively to 1.6 percent in 2019/20. Generally, there appears to have been encouraging developments within the health sector.
Other findings within HBS
- Demographically, the HBS 2019/20 shows some similarities with the previous HBS but with some exceptions. Even though the proportion of the population aged 18 years or below with a birth
certificate has declined from 86.7 percent in 2014/15 to 81.2 percent in 2019/20, birth notification has increased by about 7 percentage points within the same period. Average household size has also declined but with a small difference between urban and rural areas. Furthermore, the dependency ratio has declined from 86 percent in 2014/15 to 83 percent in 2019/20, suggesting the continued reduction in the fertility rate. Over one out of five of all households (22.8 percent) are headed by a woman, with no considerable change over time. About five percent of children have been orphaned, with a similar percentage noted in the previous HBS.
- About three-quarter of the working-age population is in the labour (74.6 percent), with most of the inactive population being full-time students. Most employed people are subsistence farmers, fishers or hunters (29.0 percent), followed closely by those engaged in elementary occupations (22.7 percent), service and shop sales workers (21.4 percent), with a little over one in
ten of the employed engaged as craft and related workers (13.4 percent). The remaining employed people are engaged as technicians and associate professionals (5.4 percent), professionals (2.9percent), clerks (2.1 percent), plant and machine operators and assemblers (2 percent), with legislators, administrators and managers constituting 1.2 percent.
- Of the rural population aged 15 years and above, almost one out of ten classify themselves as unemployed (9.8 percent) while in urban areas, around 17 percent are unemployed. There are
distinct age differences. In rural areas, for instance, 16.2 percent of young people (aged 15 to 24 years) are unemployed and in urban areas, it rises to almost one-quarter (24 percent). The data showsthat as people get older, the tendency to call themselves unemployed decreases. The proportion of females who classified themselves as unemployed was almost twice the proportion of unemployed males in all the age ranges.
- About 99 percent of all households live within a distance of 1 km to drinking water in the dry season, with no marked difference between the rural and urban areas. Furthermore, around ninety out of hundred households (91.1 percent) have access to improved sources of drinking water. The access to improved sources of drinking water for households residing in the rural areas has marginally improved over the past decade. More females are involved in collecting water during the dry season than men across all the age groups, with an average of 2.2 trips made per day to collect water during the dry season in Zanzibar.
- Close to half of all households in Zanzibar run a business (48.9 percent), with 54.6 percent of households in the urban areas and 47.6 percent in the rural areas running a business from the
2019/20 HBS. Majority of households run only one business (67.4 percent); with just about a quarter of households running two or more businesses. Around one-third (33.1 percent) of householdbusinesses in Zanzibar operate in a dedicated space and 12 percent in a permanent building other than the respondent’s home. Nearly all businesses have sole owners (97.1percent) but a small proportion of businesses have a partnership (2.5 percent).
- Close to two-thirds of the households (64.2 percent) stated that their own savings were the main source of business capital, with close to one out of five households (18.1 percent) stating that theyused a gift from family as capital for their businesses. Just over a quarter of businesses in Zanzibar are registered (27.6 percent), with the remaining 72.4 percent of businesses not registered. Only about one out of every ten businesses in Zanzibar (9.6 percent) pay income tax, with a whopping 81.2 percent of businesses not paying any form of tax. Rural and urban differences are marginal in terms of registration and taxpaying.
- Overall, close to half of all households in Zanzibar (47.4 percent) in 2019/20 HBS made at least one overnight trip in the last 12 months. About 68.2 percent of households made trips within
Zanzibar, followed by 29.7 percent of the trips made within the Tanzania Mainland, with just about 2 percent of the trips made overseas. Among the trips that were taken by households to five top regions in Tanzania Mainland, the Dar es Salaam Region had the highest proportion of trips (63.1 percent), followed by Tanga (17.4), Morogoro (4.5 percent), while only a few (2.2 percent) of the trips were taken to Pwani and Arusha Region each. The main purpose for recent trips was to visit friends (62.3 percent), holiday (6.1 percent), with business purposes constituting about 3 percent.The main means of transport used to make the most recent trip was ferry or boat (54.3 percent),followed by a bus (37.9 percent), aeroplane (3.7 percent) and, finally, own car (1.9 percent). In terms of the type of place respondents stayed for the trip, by far, the majority (90.6 percent) stayed in private homes and less than one percent stayed in hotels.